8 Mayo, 2018

Workshop and International Seminar on Complexity Sciences – CoSIAM 2018

La actividad científica no tiene sentido sin las comunidades científicas

Jesús Hernando “Pelusa” Pérez (q.e.p.d)

El Workshop and International Seminar on Complexity Sciences – CoSIAM 2018 es un evento académico a puerta cerrada multi-institucional e interdisciplinar al cual solo se puede asistir por invitación.

Está orientado a la presentación de los desarrollos de investigación que están siendo realizados por los asistentes y a la definición de las recomendaciones que conduzcan a la publicación de sus investigaciones de especial relevancia en revistas indexadas Q1 o Q1++.

En el evento también se realiza la divulgación de temas de investigación de punta a través de un minicursillo internacional.

Día y Lugar del Evento: El Workshop and International Seminar on Complexity Sciences – CoSIAM 2018 se llevará a cabo los días 02, 03 y 04 de junio de 2018 en el edificio inteligente de la Universidad Nacional a Distancia UNAD (Bogotá, Colombia).

Inscripción: La inscripción es gratuita para miembros de SIAM, por lo que se recomienda realizar la afiliación en my.siam.org y acceder a este y otros muchos beneficios, vea cómo afiliarse en https://cosiam.org/es/como-asociarse/.

Nota: Todos los participantes tendrán certificado de participación, el cual será entregado vía correo electrónico.

Para mayor información puede contactarse al siguiente mail: info@cosiam.org.

Programa del evento

El programa es el siguiente:
Día 1 (Sábado, 02 de junio de 2018)
2:00 pm Registro
3:00 pm – 4:00 pm: Minicursillo
4:00 pm – 5:30 pm: Sesión 1.1.

  • Gerard Olivar Tost PhD.
  • Johan Manuel Redondo PhD.
  • Laura Lotero PhD.

5:30 pm CoSIAM Annual Meeting

Día 2 (Domingo, 03 de junio de 2018)
9:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m. Minicursillo
10:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. Break
10:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. Sesión 2.1.

  • Carlos Arturo Peña PhD.
  • Rafael Rentería Ramos PhD.
  • Johnny Valencia Calvo PhD.

12:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. Almuerzo
2:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. Sesión 2.2.

  • Danny Ibarra Vega PhD.
  • Jorge Catumba PhD(c).
  • Hernán Darío Toro PhD(c).

3:30 p.m. – 4:00 p.m. Break
4:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. Partido de fútbol 5 de integración
6:00 pm Cierre día dos

Día 2 (Lunes, 04 de junio de 2018)
9:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m. Minicursillo
10:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. Break
10:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. Sesión 3.1.

  • Carlos Trujillo PhD(c).
  • Abel del Río Cortina PhD(c).
  • Jorge Amador Moncada PhD(c).

12:00 p.m. Cierre del evento

Resumenes de los Asistentes Invitados

Gerard Olivar Tost PhD.

Challenges in Coastal Urban Development
One of the megatendencies pointed out by ColCiencias, and other international funding agencies are urban development. This topic has been studied in the last decades when the megacity is located inland. Hard problems appear when large communities are established close to the sea, and water and touristic challenges are met. This is even worse when the city is located on an island, and transport is not easy. All megacities in this situation are in a dangerous situation, and only sustainability perspectives can be envisioned. We are facing this challenge in the Caribbean. Moreover, in this part of the world, wild storms pose severe difficulties, and additional risks have to be taken into account. Finally, underdeveloped societies are still facing very first problems, and complex behavior is expected.
From the modeling view, we have to take into account complexity and multilayer com- plex networks. Ecosystem modeling has to be fed up with instrumentation and data. Since these cities are also militarily strategic, social aids are usually required. Collaborative modeling is also a resource and consensus policies are generally the best tool for development.
In our talk, we will show several cases that can be further studied, a methodology for doing that and some interests which have been shown in the very last days (May 2018).

Johan Manuel Redondo PhD.

Saddle-Node Bifurcation in the Dynamic Analysis of a National Energy Market
This article presents preliminary results of the mathematical analysis of a national energy market. The modeling of the studied system was made from causal relationships between the supply and demand of a national energy market, obtaining a system of ordinary differential equations of the first order of the electric power capacity in construction, the electric power capacity installed and the price of electricity in the market (Redondo et.al, 2018). In the dynamic analysis of the model, a saddle-node bifurcation was identified for the case in which the elasticity of the price with respect to the reserve margin is considered null, which allowed establishing two prospective scenarios of the system: absolute disappearance of the supply of electricity or tendency of growth of the supply to the attention of the demand of the market.

Rafael Ricardo Rentería Ramos PhD.

Epidemiologic, Public Health and Complex Networks
Health differences across socioeconomic strata have always pointed out that poorer and minorities have higher mortality and morbidity than richer and majorities. This study uses complex network analysis applied to a combination of three large administrative records for the health system and mortality records in the province of Risaralda (Colombia) between 2011 and 2017. We estimate the most common causes of morbi-mortality for the poorest inhabitants of Risaralda, defined as those who qualify as recipients of subsidies from the Colombian welfare program, in the categories of those with the highest need. These populations show high morbidity frequencies for non-communicable diseases such as Type II diabetes, hypertension and hyperglyceridaemia, mostly associated with exposure to unhealthy lifestyles. However, these mortality outcomes reflect the different treatments and lifestyles of the subpopulations. While the lest poorest replicate the same causes identified for morbidity, the victims of armed conflict and black people dies of additional causes including Type I diabetes and Hypertension which reflects the even worse conditions they face.

Johnny Valencia Calvo PhD.

An Analysis in a National Electricity Market Model: A Complex Approach
This paper proposes a model for the supply and demand of electricity in a domestic market based on system dynamics. Additionally, the model shows piecewise smooth differential equations arising from the diagram of flows and levels, using dynamical systems theory for the study of stability of the equilibrium points that have such a system. A bifurcation analysis approach is proposed in order to define and understand the complex behavior. Until now, no work has been reported related to this topic using bifurcations criteria. The growing interest in personal ways of self-generation using renewable sources can lead the national grid to a standstill and low investment in the system. However, it is important to preserve the national grid as a power supply support to domestic and enterprise demand. In order to understand this scenario, we include an analysis of a zero-rate demand growth. Under this hypothesis, a none smooth bifurcation appears related to a policy which involves the variation of the capacity charge. As a first important result, we found that it is possible to preserve the investments in the market since, through the capacity charge parameter, the system dynamics can be controlled. Then, from a business approach, it is necessary to know the effects of the capacity charge as the strategic policy in the system generation price scheme.

Carlos Arturo Peña Rincón PhD.

Environmental engineering and mathematics applications
In this opportunity it is intended to communicate the different projects with the collaboration of undergraduate and graduate students, some of them are focused on the deepening line and others on research in each of the following areas: solid waste, plan of environmental management, socio-environmental conflicts, disaster risk management and sustainable development.

Danny Ibarra Vega PhD.

Water resources planning in bioethanol production from sugarcane
The biofuels industry has grown and has positioned itself in Colombia for national purposes, these come from biomass sources such as agricultural crops. Bioethanol is the most used in Colombia and is obtained from sugarcane. One of the main concerns of the sector and society, is the high water consumption associated with agricultural crops (9,000 m3 / ha-year), there are currently 232,000 hectares of sugarcane for the production of sugar and bioethanol. Given the aforementioned, the need arises to carry out a planning of industrial increase of the sector taking into account as a main base the demand and availability of water resources for different activities in the Cauca river basin and the demand for sugarcane crops. It is presented to develop a mathematical model and the evaluation of different scenarios of the estimation of the trend of water consumption in the bioethanol production process in Colombia and in this way to establish scenarios of high risk of water shortage both for the population, interested parties and cane cultivation.

Laura Lotero Vélez PhD.

Unveiling socioeconomic differences in Colombia by means of urban mobility complex networks
Understanding socioeconomic differences is of crucial importance to fight inequity, which is one of the main socio-political problems of Colombia. Laws 142 and 143 of 1994 defined a system that classifies households into six socioeconomic strata according to the public services utilities paying capacity. It has been widely used as a proxy of the socioeconomic status of people in Colombia being those people living in status 1 the lowest-income and those in status 6 the wealthiest. By means of using mobility information of the origin-destination surveys of three Colombian cities (Bogotá, Medellín and Manizales) is possible to unveil the mobility patterns of each social status and find if there are differences according to the income-level of people. With this analysis, we found that middle-income strata, which are the strata of the majority of the population, are distributed and move through the whole city and, on the other hand, extreme strata (lowest and highest income levels) are spatially segregated into specific zones of the city, although the reasons for segregation are quite different for these groups. We also introduced a multiplex approach for each socioeconomic group, by including transportation modes as layers of the network. We found that transportation modes and socioeconomic status are mobility variables that are highly related and thus must be analyzed in an integrated way. We found that extreme socioeconomic strata (highest and lowest) are less multimodal and more segregated in their mobility patterns, while mid-low strata (2 and 3) are less spatially segregated in terms of mobility and tend to use more transportation modes. Our results give insights to urban planners to prioritize zones or groups of people in order to make urban mobility plans or interventions to incentive a multimodal mobility or to mitigate the spatial and socioeconomic segregation.

Jorge Catumba Ruíz PhD(c).

Emergency Resource Allocation using Genetic Algorithms and Discrete Event Simulation
We present an mixed algorithm that computes the algorithmic-optimal location of emergency resources according to computed hystorical statistics. Some considerations are: no more than a resource is sent to an incident, resources are selected according to incident priorities and distance from resource base to incident location. Each time, a different set of random incidents is generated so it’s posible to use the algorithm with an updated set of hystorical incidents. We found that the genetic algorithm converges so we can consider its solution as an optimal.

Hernán Darío Toro PhD(c).

Mathematical model for the evolutionary dynamics of innovations in public transportation systems in a city
In this paper it is formulated and studied a mathematical model from the perspective of Adaptive Dynamics (evolutionary processes), to describe the interaction dynamics between two public transport systems in a city: a established one and an innovative one. Each system is assumed to be influenced by a characteristic attribute, in this case, the number of passengers per unit it can transport. The model considers as state variables the proportion of users of each transport system and the budget proportion destined for its expansion among new users.
The the model analysis allows to determine conditions under which the innovative transportation system can penetrate and establish itself, or not, in a market initially dominated by the established transportation system. Making use of Adaptive Dynamics, we study the expected long-term behavior of the characteristic attribute that defines transport systems. This long-term study allows to establish conditions under which certain values of the characteristic attribute configure scenarios of coexistence, divergence or both. The latter case, is reported as the occurrence of evolutionary ramifications, conditions that would guarantee the viability of the innovative transport system and, consequently, this phenomenon is referred as origin of diversity.

Abel del Río Cortina PhD(c).

Dynamic Model for the Management of Research Projects
The objective of this work is to define a dynamic model focus on the analysis of the management of research projects. These projects are framed into a cause and effect structure in which the processes of formulation (Fo), approval (Ap), development (De) and closure (C) are configured and executed, being relevant the formulation (Fo) and approval (Ap) processes as support for success. By addressing the characteristic behavior of research projects considering basic elements of delays, feedback and accumulation within the structure of cause and effect, there are generated some reflections about new strategies in terms of decision making, organizational capacities, resources demand, and about the analysis of approval criteria, this, in order to formulate and approve projects that tend to be successful. Through the proposal, there are obtained inputs and judgments to improve the management conditions of the projects and the performance of the research system of Universities.

Carlos Andrés Trujillo PhD(c)

Mathematical modeling of natural controls for the Coffee Berry Borer (CBB)
After Oil, coffee is the second export product in Colombia, which dismisses any discussion of its economic relevance. Unfortunately, this agricultural product has an important natural enemy called Hypothenemus hampei, a beetle popularly known as coffee berry borer (CBB), which deserves its control due to the significant damage caused: 1) it produces small fruits fall, decreasing production volumes; 2) it produces losses in the weight, affecting the yield; 3) produces losses in quality, affecting sales prices.

The evolution of insect pests, such as the CBB, is a very dynamic process that can be largely regulated by natural drivers and factors of environmental resistance, but human intervention is necessary to reduce populations to levels below 5% through a well-structured program of integrated management, which is composed, among other factors, by biological control.

Taking into account the above, mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations, are proposed and analyzed numerically, to describe the variation of the number of individuals belonging to different population stages of CBB (egg, larvae, pupae and mature). The models have as a distinguishing feature, namely, the incorporation or not of natural controllers and the analysis of their the effects on CBB populations.

Jorge Amador PhD(c)

The role of economic cooperation between two rural communities
Historical civilizations have evidenced different routes to the collapse mainly due to political, warfare, cultural and environmental damages. This has animated modern researches to study and understand social, economic, and environmental challenges that modern society have to adopt in order to avoid history from repeat itself, and even worst, irreversibly. Many of these research are focused on modelling through sets of ordinary differential equations (ODE's ) representing the dynamic interaction between natural resources and population in a isolated society. In this work, we introduce the fact of cooperation between two similar societies, modelled as sets of ODE's of the type Brander and Taylor (1998), in the sense that economical exchange can exist between them. We couple two societies by introducing a simple receive-and-protect rule in which one society receive the other's help under the condition of protecting its own resources. We set that this cooperation may be constant, when it does not change all over the time, or changes intermittently depending on the level of resources each society has at any time. When cooperation is constant, the resulting system is a 4-dimensional system of ODE's that evolves smoothly, but if cooperation is intermittent, the coupled 4-dimensional system becomes a non-smooth system, i.e. a Filippov system. In both cases, we find that under economic cooperation, societies can survive at least in the long run, different from what happens when both societies are treated in isolation for the same parameter values.